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Prediction for CME (2024-11-27T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-27T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35370/-1
CME Note: Southeastward partial halo CME with the likely source a filament eruption seen in GOES SUVI 304 and 284 starting around 2024-11-27T18:45Z extending southeastwards from Active Regions 13905 (S09E01) and 13906 (S16E08). The CME also has a second, following front - a loop seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-27T20:36Z. Only one frame for this CME is available in STEREO A COR2 because of an extensive data gap.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-02T20:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-30T02:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] [BULK] PRESTO ALERT
:Issued: 2024 Nov 29 1323 UTC
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is directed to the South-East and associated with the SIDC flare 2737 located at the SIDC Sunspot Group 302. It is estimated to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov.

 
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Date: Friday, November 29, 2024 at 7:33 AM
Subject: [EXTERNAL] [BULK] SIDC Ursigram
:Issued: 2024 Nov 29 1231 UTC
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
SIDC URSIGRAM 41129
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Nov 2024, 1230UT
…
Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be
seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is
expected to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov.
Lead Time: 79.73 hour(s)
Difference: 65.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-11-29T12:23Z
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